Question:
If you were a scout, which one do you feel is the most important stat to have for college pitchers?

Choices:
Wins
ERA
Strikeouts
Strikeout-to-walk ratio
Winning percentage

 

That's a good question. Here’s my take. I put K/BB ratio but I think the most important statistic is dwarfed by the scout’s opinion. I tend to believe that scouts are properly named. They scout talent, not read stats. Scouts probably use college stats to reinforce their opinion of a player and use them to sell their player but I still think a scout’s visual observation and personal evaluation reign are the most important factors of where a player will get drafted. To prove my point let's apply our final tally to someone like 3rd rounder Jason Neighborgall.

I agree with Fungo....K/BB ratio, but Scout's visual & personal observations probably carry the most weight.

O42

I voted K/BB...but I don't think it matters...here's a story on two of my players...got a 5'11 185 LHP...FR, tops at 86 currently pitches 84-86 very dominate plus CH, plus CB, plus Splitter...will pitch 80+ innings for me this season...scouts luke warm! Another lefty 6'2 205, SO, tops at 86, can't hit the broad side of a barn, but when he's in the zone he strikes nearly everyone out...good CH, ok CB...has pitched 5 innings in the fall...0 in HS, 1/3 in college...with control will get some innings this season but primarily an OF...SCOUTS LOVE HIM! they want him to work out this summer, they want in certain leagues! they love his "size" most scouts in our area are no longer looking for guys to fill rosters...they are looking for future major league players! direct quote from one of my friends, whos a scout in MD...go figure!

With a great bias, as both of my sons pitch, I see all too often pitchers getting trashed by scorekeepers in college ball and summer wooden bat leagues. Very questionable plays seem to go down more often as as hits, converting unearned runs to earned runs, creating RBI's and inflating ERA's. Two short scenarios: (1) runners on second/third, grounder to third, ball fielded clean and thrown into the stands behind first. Ruling: batter would've beat the throw, two run single. (2) Bases loaded, two outs, deep fly to center. Centerfielder covers serious ground to get to the ball, gets the ball in his glove, bounces his glove off of his leg and the ball pops out. Ruling: three run double. Stuff like these two seem to happen fairly regularly.

I hope that the previous posters are right. Based on what I've seen, not much beyond walks and strikeouts seem consistently reliable from a numerical standpoint.

The only stat that matters when considering a pitcher is ERA.

If a pitcher can get outs and keep the ball in the park, he can just flat out pitch.

I wouldn't care if a player never struck out a batter as long as he controlled the other team and kept us in the game. If MPH were the only barometer of a good pitcher Phil Niekro would not be in the Hall of Fame.

Scouts have to wake up and smell the coffee.

WillieBoBo,

But what of the pitcher that gets bases loaded, two outs, then an error allows a run, then three consecutive homers bring in 6 more? All would be unearned, pitcher has a 0.00 ERA, but got waxed.

I view ERA's, at least at the high school and college level, with a cautious eye due to inconsistent scorekeeping as I mentioned earlier. At professional level, scorekeeping is on a much higher plain.

I don't believe scouts look at stats at all-except maybe the stats that they personally observe. They have no way of knowing what the competition
was that the pitcher achieved their success(or lack of)against.

Fungo hit the nail on the head with Neighborgal from GT. Third round draft
pick and still has trouble finding the strike zone but a 95 to 98 mph is hard to teach.

IMO they look for #1-velocity, #2-body make up, #3-off speed pitch(quality), #4-durability.

However, that being said, if a pitcher in one of the top conferences is a weekend pitcher with SO to IP ratio of over 1 then it would certainly indicate that he has decent velocity or a very good curve or change and has
achieved it against some pretty stiff college competition.

Hokie, I'm with you on the ERA deal. One bad game can mess up an ERA for the whole season and a rediculous ruling by an official scorer can be the cause of it. Just because my sons are pitchers doesn't have any bearing
on my feelings.

pro scouts don't care about stats...look at size and velocity.

quote:

Hokie, I'm with you on the ERA deal. One bad game can mess up an ERA for the whole season and a rediculous ruling by an official scorer can be the cause of it.

Moc:

Yeah...just what is with some of these score keepers.... geeezzzzzzzz

I believe that scouts look at velocity as the most important stat. I know guys drafted last year that hit 91-92 and lsoe evry game I have seen them pitch. I know a guy who is in the nineties and can hit the zone. I watched him for 5-6 years. He is a great kid and steals the show at all the showcases and I have never seen him get past the 2nd inning. The last showcase he was in the second ining and loaded the bases for the 3rd time. My son went in with 0 out and cleaned the mess up and guess who got all the attention. The 1st guy is in A ball and has an ERA over 11. This guy was suspended 2 times by his summer team for behaviour issues and that had no bearing on thye scouts.The 2nd finished 2 YRS at JUCO last spring and his results were the same as I was used to. I have seen him in almost every game walk in 2-4 runs in 2 innings or less. Several times 6 straight walks. Our coaches tend to give our pitchers a chance to work his way out of a jam. He had a ML scout who helped coach our team work with him and still could not get him to throw strikes.
My opinion is ERA is the most important Stat followed closly by Ks if the number is high. Balls don't mean much as long as the number is not too high.
Yes all things get factored in such as score keeper, competition and pitchers can have bad days (low energy etc). I have driven my son to an evening game and he is yawning and streached out in the passenger seat falling asleep and I am thinking this should be interesting.
Nothing can really replace the scouts observing the player in games at a high level of competition. I do believe that college stats are vey important if you are in a decent conference.

.

Hate to be a broken record but we're back to one of my favorite topics/pet peeves...qualifing velocities.

Good postings and good examples have been made regarding some VERY successful DI pitchers and high end schools who throw in the low to mid 80's. They probably have wins, bodies, experience, great stats.

I ask you...Will they get seriously drafted?
.

What did one local scout tell me? "Stats are for grandmothers and newspapers."

I doubt he meant it in an absolute sense, but I think he was driving home a point to me. He also was not from a "Moneyball" team.

I don't believe velocity is a "stat" and didn't want to get into the velocity debate again.

I would love to hear bbscouts take on this.

I was recently told, taking out the human factor, lookingat all stats,that strike out to walk ratio can determine a pitcher's control and effective use of pitches. The other's are important, but is determined by difficulty/weekend/weekday performance. It was an opinion, not necessarily a fact, as we see in Fungo's example.

Go to "DRaft Tracker" and view the videos of the pitchers for the last couple years and you will see what they actually do in regards to velocity.
One of the best pitchers who went to my son's college was a "Barely Break 80" pitcher who was drafted. He went 7-2 in his 1st year at A ball. He broke several records at college.
The fact that this school had a low velocity pitcher with great success was one of the reasons we liked the school so much and that they played against some top quality schools.
The walk thing dosen't tell the story about control in all cases. There are BB and there are BB. In one inning this fall my son had 2 Ks 2BB and a pop up. Is that as bad as it looks ? No the coach said he did great because his pitch location was great. All around the zone, not giving in and throwing one that was hittable just to get the K. I have always preached this and you should not be afraid to locate even if it means giving up a BB.
To me W/L record is more of a team stat but does reflect as a part of the pitchers ability. If you pitch for a low production team you will get a skewed number. Stats should be a part of the picture but not the whole story.

quote:

But what of the pitcher that gets bases loaded, two outs, then an error allows a run, then three consecutive homers bring in 6 more? All would be unearned, pitcher has a 0.00 ERA, but got waxed.

The .000 ERA would hold true in high school , college and the pros if scored that way.

In that example the extra out turned into a big inning as it usually does.

quote:

One of the best pitchers who went to my son's college was a "Barely Break 80" pitcher who was drafted. He went 7-2 in his 1st year at A ball. He broke several records at college.

Bobblehead... The question isn't which pitcher ends up being the best after he's drafted, it's what stat a scout likes in a college player. The round in which this "barely break 80" pitcher was drafted will indicate how well the scouts liked him and his stats. There are many pitchers in the bigs that weren't high draft picks or drafted at all but that's another good topic.
Fungo

TPM-I understand the choices you gave about stats and you started the question
out by "If you were a scout" my opinion is that stats don't matter to me and the majority of scouts I know as well. If I HAD to choose one of your choices I would go strictly with strikeouts because that would be the closest
indicator a pitcher(sight unseen) may have some velocity.

I've had scouts tell me they have gone to see a kid for the first time because
someone told them this "prospect" was striking out everyone in sight and when
he put the radar on him he didn't break 83-but he sure was getting his share
of K's. Why? The competition was terrible. We had a kid on our team that only pitched one game and struck out 12 of the 15 batters he faced(game only went 5
innings)-the other team had to borrow our catcher's mitt and so did a few of the fielders. Our pitcher could barely throw 75 mph and nothing but fastballs(for lack of a better term).

Point being, I know you wanted a response to one of your 5 choices but IMO I
don't think a scout would care about any stat unless he could set up the same
circumstances that those stats occurred under for all the pitchers he is scouting. A good SO/W ratio of 9/2 might be great against Texas in June if a kid goes 9 innings, but is that just as good as a 9/2 ratio against Eastern
Michigan on Feb 3rd?(nothing against E.M. but they're probably still in snow that time of year )

I also would like to see BBScout weigh in on this as well and maybe I'm all wet and don't know what I'm talking about.

Moc,
Thanks, not really sure which it is either. Putting velocity aside, I always thought it was ERA. But ERA means different things at different places.
I was just wondering if a scout was to consider a stat an important one, which would it be.

Bobbleheaddoll,
I was thinking more like a college pitchers 3 seasons in college, not one inning in practice.
I am ssuming most really good college pitchers can locate many of their pitches.