The only thing left to make this complete would be someone coming on here and talking about how they made the wrong decision.

There have been many wrong decisions made, but in most cases the draft makes the decision much easier.

There have been some who turned down millions and never to see it offered again, but that's a different discussion. Without a doubt the safest route unless the money dictates differently is to go to college. But that's only if it's about money and sometimes there are other things to consider.

I think everyone here in one way or another is saying the same thing. It's very much an individual thing with no right or wrong decision. There are only right or wrong results and without a crystal ball it's too hard to predict those. Too bad... if we knew the results the decisions would be a slam dunk.

College or pro? What great choices.. how can you go wrong? We are not sending kids off to war thank God !
So what ever the choice is, embrace it!

njbb
great point,it's a can't lose in my book........but nobody ever reads my book.

quote:

He really wants to play professional baseball and thinks, if drafted, he would like to give it a shot no matter what round he goes in.

quote:

He says that he has talked to kids playing D1 ball now and they are stressed academically with the new compact college season.

quote:

should he follow his dream (no matter which round he is drafted in) and go for it

Very excellent analysis.

Based on interest your son appears to be having, a higher round is indicated.

There are a couple of things that I have observed.

First, projected time to majors is an issue and the round can be an indicator of time to majors. Teams draft players based on how soon they believe the player can have an impact on the major league team.

For many of us to confess to ourselves that we might have to make a decision like this is unthinkable.

And, then, to think we might let money affect the decision, is more than we would ever admit.

But, economics will enter the picture.

That is where the NCAA coaches have screwed themselves. (They vote on the NCAA rules that govern them.)

It was difficult to comply with the NCAA academic requirements and play baseball before the season compression rules came into play.

I think the impact of the season compression decision is that the money may increase a little in rounds 5-10 making the decision easier for those players to forego school (with the baseball scholarship plan included) and begin a professional baseball career immediately.

The impact on the transition of my son to minor league baseball has been impacted significantly by the experience he gained playing college baseball.

Of course hindsight is 20/20, but knowing what I know now about my son, and, had he been drafted in the 5-10 round with more money available, it would have been very tempting to encourage him to consider a professional baseball career out of high school.

bbscout was right.

If you want a career in professional baseball get with it there is no better way than to get started early.

I did note bbscout's son attended college and that affected my advice to my son.

But, I wonder if bbscout would make the same decision now.

I understand the process of rethinking how the decision will be made everyday while stuggling at the same time with whether it will ever have to actually be decided.

My experience was that as the decision time came closer, the answer became more certain.

The long debate was critcal, though, in making a decision that frequently has to be done very quickly.

quote:

should he follow his dream (no matter which round he is drafted in) and go for it

Your gut will tell you at the right time.

quote:

We are not sending kids off to war thank God !

I had sons going in BOTH directions last year ----- One going to war and one playing pro ball so I guess I look at it a little differently. I thank my son for going to war ---- and thank God for bringing him home safely.
Fungo

Thanks to everyone for this very timely and informative discussion.

For those lucky enough to be faced with a difficult decision regarding the upcoming draft, I hope they all have the benefit of reading this thread. College vs. Pro may be one of the most important decisions these young men will ever make, learning from the insight that has been shared in this thread will make them much more prepared to make an informed decision. I hope you all know how valuable your insight is too many of us that visit the HSBBW.

Thank you for taking the time to share, it is appreciated!

Thanks to all for a whole lot of inforamtion that will take some time to sift through. I guess what is most apparent to me from the repsones is that we need to carefully weigh the options and make the best decision possible. Once the decision is made there should not be regrets and every effort needs to be made to be succesful whichever path is chosen. Again, thanks to all for the input. It was much more than I ever anticipated.

BobR,
I like the information and the variations and successes on each path so much, I went back and reread the thread.
In doing so, I did find one item I, personally, believe to be very important that isn't included, and that is the organization drafting your son.
It is extremely important to understand the developmental philosophy of the MLB club. They vary widely. Some have very poor histories but are in the process of change.
Some have very poor histories, and remain unchanged.
Some stockpile talent and then sign veterans that get loaded in to AAA and 40 man slots, necessarily putting a lid on progress upward.
Some do it very well with development and with moving players who perform through the organization so they can be challenged, prove themself, move upward and be challenged again.
Do as much as you can to learn about the variations in player development. It can be an important factor in the decisions you and your son will be making.

quote:

Originally posted by infielddad:


It is extremely important to understand the developmental philosophy of the MLB club. They vary widely. Some have very poor histories but are in the process of change.
Some have very poor histories, and remain unchanged.
Some stockpile talent and then sign veterans that get loaded in to AAA and 40 man slots, necessarily putting a lid on progress upward.
Some do it very well with development and with moving players who perform through the organization so they can be challenged, prove themself, move upward and be challenged again.
Do as much as you can to learn about the variations in player development. It can be an important factor in the decisions you and your son will be making.

With the ever changing rosters in minor league baseball, does anyone have any suggestions how to best determine which teams do a better job of player development.

quote:

Originally posted by BobR:
I have a question for those of you that have been through this before.
I would be greatful for some input from others who have been there.

---------------------
Hmmm

Allow me to offer an opinion, yet before that is accomplished, let me understand your words:

Summary
HS RHP
a. Sits at 87-88,
b. Touches 91.
c. Projects to 95 mph
d. Projects to 6'5 220
e. Wants to play pro ball
f. Thinks there exist quicker progress in pros
g. NCAA LOI
h. Zero Dollars to spend except expenses in college
i. Two way player potential at college
j. Good Student
k. Conservative route if college taken
l. Stressful new compact college season
m. Competition in college is same as pro's

Comment to summary
i. A level of risk to become true
k. My viewpoint is not the same
l. My viewpoint is not the same
m. My viewpoint is not the same

Since this may be a business decision, remind him
he will live in poverty for six months of the year
(Mar - Aug) playing MiLB, (unless supported by Mom and Dad).

- He will need to find a job off-season to pay for his expenses (yet has zero skills for the job market, thus expect minimum wage)

Observations:
- MiLB is NOT for every American HS Player/Pitcher.

- The HS baseball player must love the game first and foremost.

- Being on the road, playing ball, in Podunk for the 17-18-19 y/o are new & memorable experiences.

- Let's presume he's drafted out of HS.

- Let's presume he signs a MiLB pro contract for $80K

- Let's presume he advances in his MiLB career consistently over the next three years after HS.

- He could be more advanced in pro-ball than the Two Year Juco sign and the three year D1 sign.
Yet may have received less signing bonus dollars!

- He could be less advanced than the low round 4 year DI guy, yet have a lot more signing dollars.

Conclusions:
- If the round drafted out of HS is early, and the signing bonus is respectable, then sign.
The question for Dad is 'what is your figure'?

- If the round drafted out of HS is middle, and the signing bonus is respectable, then sign.

- If the round drafted out of HS is late, and the signing bonus is pitiful, then attend college (and work his bu^^ ooff in the classroom and on the field, dreaming about the bigger dollars after signing in three years! Those bonus dollars could be significantly higher than after HS! Then as a pro, work his butt off.

College education is a great fall back position, however, today, he may make pro baseball his profession of choice!

cheers
Bear

postscript: The minor leagues are full of guys who never made it to the next level and don’t have anything else to fall back on. Many improved their game and draft position in college and furthered their education in the process. College play gives you the chance to test yourself at a higher level. If you are good enough, you’ll still be there, and you’ll have both a stronger competitive experience to help you make a run at MLB, and a college degree to sustain your future
......from a former MLB who attended college

It might take some work, but if you go to MLB.com and check rosters it will reveal a little bit.

Look for players 25 and younger. DOB 1983 or above. This will tell you how many young guys are on the MLB active rosters at this time.

Also might want to check up on who actually drafted those players originally. Sometimes a trade can benefit a player greatly. Might also want to research whether they were drafted out of high school or college.

If I had the time, would do myself. I think that would be interesting information.

I did check Arizona only because they are a hot team right now.

Pitchers, 1 born in 84, 1 in 83, 2 in 82
Position players, 1 born in 87 (Upton), 4 born in 83, 1 in 82.

That means 10 of the 25 on their current roster is around 26 or younger.

Oh heck, I checked Atlanta too… only because they draft a lot of high school kids.

They have one pitcher born in 86, one in 82. They have two position players born in 84, two in 83, four born in 82.

They also have 10 of the 25 on their current roster who are 26 or younger.

Of course, we do know of some young MLB pitchers Atlanta has drafted and traded.

IMO, It looks like more young guys are playing at the MLB level than ever before. I’m not sure though. Even the Yankees and RedSox have some young guys on their roster.

IMHO - Development sometimes can be no more complicated than not screwing up your top draft picks. Sounds simple but some teams can wander in the forest for decades by not being able to draft. The Indians were like this from the late 50's until the mid 90's when their farm system finally started to produce. Manny Ramierez, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Kenny Loften (acquired through shrewd trade of a minor league prospect Eddie Taubensee), Charles Nagy, Sandy Alomar and Carlos Baerga (acquired from San Diego's farm system for Joe Carter). Also, Omar Visquel. When you put this much talent on the field at about the same time you get what the Rockies and the Dimondbacks did last year and are continuing to do. Detroit has turned things around with Dave Dombrowski. Atlanta and Minnesota have done a fine job of developing/ drafting young players. The Indians have re-built themelves from a power hitting team to a power pitching team and were serious contenders last year. They have a similar philosophy to the D-backs and Rockies and some of the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Pirates may be the next team you'll see come up this way.

jerseydad,
BA does it's own survey of the minor league systems and provides some ranking and analysis.
One important thing you can do, in addition to the suggestions from PGstaff, is compare AAA rosters as opposed to MLB rosters.
If you find AAA rosters filled with guys 28 years and older, that will give you some guidance.
Also, look at 40 man rosters and check the ages of player 26-40. Again, that will provide guidance.
Beyond that, hopefully you might have access to a very good advisor who can provide input and guidance. If they cannot, they might not be a very good advisor.
From my experience, the one reliable way is nearly impossible to track.
It involves being able to track players at the AA level. When you see kids having great years at AA, and not being moved or traded,(because the AAA is loaded with 30 year olds) and then they get reassigned to AA the following year, you get seemingly reliable ideas on player development.

quote:

Originally posted by jerseydad:
With the ever changing rosters in minor league baseball, does anyone have any suggestions how to best determine which teams do a better job of player development.

That's very hard question to answer, IMO. Things are changing so rapidly, I see tremendous changes since son's HS draft year, even in his organization. Many teams have proven that you can put a good product on the field, win and not break the bank. Some teams will draft a player full well knowing that they may never wear their MLB uniform, but offer much value for trade. Miller is a great example. Of course that depends on the need of the organization. I htink there are some teams who still don't get it.

Estimated time for drafted HS players to reach MLB is generally 4-5 years, unless they are of top talent, it could be sooner. College players estimated time is generally less. Position is also a factor, some say it's best to go out of HS for pitchers, others say it's best for position players to get their at bats in college.

My sons roomate this summer was out of HS and a late round who gave up school. He came filled with enthusiasm, by the end of summer he had changed, he felt that he had made a wrong choice. Getting up at 6am, playing complex ball everyday and ending at 1, he was pretty bored and it was too darn hot to do anything in the afternoons, or too expensive. He was packed to go home a week before he was ready. He is in extended spring training waiting for asignment. Most of the later round HS picks are still awaiting an assignment for single season or rookie.

Fungo,
God bless your son for defending our country so that our sons can be safe and play ball.


Oh one other thing, honesty. Remember the scout that drafts you is doing his job, if you have given indications you will sign, then you are not happy with the round or money (this is especailly true with higher picks), he could lose your job. By being honest means unless you are top prospect, asking for a million dollars for a signing bonus when you may be a later round pick. Study draft rounds, if tehy say your son may be a 6-10 round pick, understand what those rounds bring for bonus dollars. Again, if money is not an issue, it doesn't matter.

QUESTION:
Scholarship Plan.....Is it standard for every pro contract, regardless of round?
Is the plan standard, or can it vary by player?

Quick "what if":
Player wants to play pro ball and gets drafted.
Let's assume for the moment he gets the plan mentioned above.
And let's assume he is a position player who is getting the min (25%) from a DI school.

I know, there are many "ifs" in this scenario, but from a purely economic perspective, why wouldn't a player take the shot at the pros knowing he can chase his dream AND that his college education would be 100% paid for once his pro days are over which for most guys would be sooner rather than later.....(again, I am making some large assumptions about the scholly plan)????

All teams do things differently and much depends on how badly they want you or how high or low you are drafted. My son has a friend drafted as a junior and they would not give him enough to finish school, there is no standard set amount as far as I know.

One team that wanted to draft son out of HS, would give him what the average cost to attend a state school (at today's prices) in Florida would be, they would not give what his scholarship amount would be worth for 4 years at Clemson. That meant essentially he was limited if he ever wished to go out of state.

The team that drafted son from college set aside almost half of what the other team would have given because he expressed a desire to return to that school for his degree and out of state. They gave it to him no questions asked.

You can chase your dream and go to college on the MLB scholarship plan. Players have fall (if not invited to fall instruction or fall ball) to attend classes or do online classes.

From what I see, it's virtually impossible to try to do your best in proball and go to school at the same time. We wondered if after he was done with baseball (whenever that may be) he would. You have 2 years to begin the plan from the time you leave pro ball. We also felt that was limiting his options.

It's just a personal decision. My suggestion is to make sure that you do read the plan before draft day.

TPM-
Thanks for the info.....looks like the scholly plan is variable.

You comment about pro ball and school is interesting.

For those out there who have sons playing college ball now (i.e. current sophs, Jrs or Srs) who have now had to play under the old AND new schedule format (the new compressed season), I would like to hear some comments about how they are handling school with the compressed college schedule.

I have talked to just a couple of players who have said it is definitely much tougher now.

Here in the Northeast the schedule has always been compressed--- life is all about adapting or you do not succeed

ADAPT !!!!

I am posting (first post in several years) because of PGStaff’s comments regarding all this thread needed was a post by someone that had made the wrong decision.

While I agree with several others that there is no wrong decision – I think there can be wrong or poor advice, and I think I gave some to my son.

HAVING WATCHED THE EFFORT OF PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL TO DEVELOP HIM COMPARED WITH THE COLLEGE MENTALITY TO ABUSE HIM, I WOULD CHANGE MY ADVICE FROM WHAT I GAVE HIM 4 YEARS AGO.

My son was in the 2004 high school draft class, the same as Justbaseball, TPM and Deldad all of whom have shared their son’s experience and given insightful advice. He ranked as a top 10 prospect in the area code games, top 30 BA, and was generally considered a 2nd to 4th round pick. We focused on what he “should do” from a monetary standpoint and not so much on what he wanted to do. We picked a figure, middle 2nd round money in 2004 and honestly told teams not to draft him if they were not willing to pay that figure or above. He had had 70% to 90% scholarship offers from numerous top programs, and had committed to one over the others based upon the quality of the pitching coach.

The situation seemed perfect, advice seemed good.

Next 3 years in a nutshell: was drafted in 21st round, offered 3rd round money to sign, stuck to guns i.e., 2nd round money and didn’t sign, enrolled in college, pitching coach fired, delivery and mechanics changed completely by inexperienced volunteer assistants, lied to repeatedly by head coach, barely used, transferred after 2 years, next school over used and used on short rest to point of failure, then not used at all, still drafted in 5th round, signed ($350,000 less than offered out of HS). Son summed up frustration after 3 years of college this way: “if they (a team that drafts him) offers me an f……g bus ticket, I’m out of here (here being college).

My advice to BobR is to make sure you give enough attention to what your son wants to do. I remember the look on my son’s face after about the 5th round on day one of the 2004 draft. He had pre-draft deals he could have agreed to that would have had him drafted in the 3rd round, and while he outwardly agreed with my, his mother’s and his advisor’s advice, I could see in his eyes he really wanted to play pro ball out of high school. We both have some regrets.

This is just one kid’s experience, but in retrospect I think the best advice we got was from old Jim Walton of the MLB scouting bureau – based on his 40 years of scouting – he advised that if you truly want to give MLB your best shot, sign and go play regardless of money. If you are not sure, or have other more important goals, then perhaps college is a better course.

Try to know your son’s mind.

Thus far we have found the effort in pro ball to help him in trying to develop to the next level refreshing and comforting. Juxtapose that with our experience with 2 college coaches (both top programs) which I describe as disgusting. I have been soured by the attitude and abuses of college baseball, consequently, I would be much more likely to give pro ball a stronger recommendation.

But I will reiterate, if you are fortunate to have a choice neither decision is wrong. There are “what ifs”, but in my son’s example, he has many good friends and memories from each school, has 3 years of college in, and has the remainder of college paid for. Not all bad.

One comparison of interest: we are from a cold weather state where often there is not a high school player drafted in the first 20 rounds. In 2004 in addition to my son, there was another tall lefty drafted who was drafted in the 8th round and signed. He is in AA with 4 years in, while my son is just getting started in low A. Might have been a better path.

K2,

Wow, thank you for a tremendously helpful post. It's always really useful to read stories from parents who feel their sons successfully navigated the process. But it can be even more illuminating to read an honest story about a bumpy path.

My son was in the same HS grad class as yours, so I can imagine the anguish you must have felt for him at times! But it sounds like he made the best of it, and has come out on the other end with some great opportunities ahead of him.

I, for one, will be pulling for your son! Please keep us updated on how he is doing, and very best wishes to him!

Julie