My son (2009) participated in a PG showcase last year and was rated as a 6.5. I thought the rating was very fair compared to the players I witnessed and then matched to their individual ratings on the website. I believe that my son's ability (along with his size and strength) have significantly increased. Is it possible that when goes to the PG showcase this year and performs at his "new" level, he could be scored a couple of points higher? I am just not sure how grading occurs in multible PG events. Thanks for the feedback.

Mine went to the 2005 underclass and was rated a 7. This year he attended the classic and was rated a 9. Hope that helps.

Grades can go up or down. It depends primarily on what you do at the showcase you are being rated at. Rusty Shellhorn went from a 6.5 to a 9.5. Don't forget that to some degree he's being rated against other 2009s and some of them will also have gotten bigger and stronger. Best of luck with the next showcase.

PCBallDad.. my kid is that Rusty Shellhorn character CADad talked about. I would like to mildly disagree with one aspect of what CADad said. I don't think the (new) score primarily depends upon what your kid does at the showcase. I think scouts and PG have a pretty good idea of not only present ability but projectibility and talent. They know all kids have off days.

Of course, if a kid only goes there once and stinks it up, it wouldn't be fair to fault PG who can only go by the information on hand.

One of the reasons why we decided to go to the World Showcase was to display demonstrable improvement over time. There seems to be no rhyme or reasons to player improvements. Another example? Take a look at the profile of Matthew Zoltak.

So at least do a followup showcase.

I have read all of the threads about PG and I have some questions:

How does this rating work and of what value is it? Do coaches at the next level actually use this? Do players send this to caoches as proof of a an "independant assessment of their ability at the next level.

I have seen several ratings of players on my sons team and opponent that he has played and these seem to be overinflated or the next level is not all that it made out to be.

Examples: A 2009 5'-8" 130lb SS w/a 59 mph throw w/a level swing is a 6.5 (D1 prospect and a definite DII player/JUCO player)?

A 2010 RHP w/71 mph FB is also a 6.5?

I am not looking to pick a fight with anyone. I just can not make sense of the numbers and the ratings or understand thier value. I do make any claims to be able to project a player to the next level. I just can not understand it in my own mind.

boyinr,

I would have to see who exactly you're talking about. Your first example doesn't make sense based on the information you gave. However, there could be a lot more to that player. 59 mph throw sounds very poor. Level swing is more a description than an evaluation.

Without knowing who you're talking about, I would have no idea how well he hits, how well he fields, how well he runs, if he has older brothers who are 6-3/180 playing in college or pro.

Usually if we know which player someone is referring to, we can accurately explain why we gave him a certain grade. But so often, people just write what they choose and say they don't understand. The truth usually is... there is an agenda.

The easiest way to find out if PG has any credibility is to ask a high level DI coach.

BTW, grades are always based on potential.

PGStaff,
Since you definitely have first hand knowledge in this area let me ask my earlier question a different way. Does a player's previous rating have any bearing on his "new" rating at a later showcase? Is there consideration given from prior "ratings" as to the new rating? Ex: A 9.5 goes out and can't catch a cold and hits poorly. Since he was a 9.5 previously, what is he rated for this showcase?

Bum,
Agreed, although potential doesn't always show through as you noted. I know of a kid, not my son, who is a very good player who got what was for him a so-so rating and based on what I saw at the showcase I believe PG took potential into account and gave him a very fair grade.

Based on what I've seen from the kid in the past against top competition I think the next time he showcases he's going to get a much better grade despite a weakness in one area, that probably contributed to the rating he got. That's why I said primarily. I think he was the seen once and didn't do as well as he might have case similar to the case you mentioned. He got much too high of a rating to say he stunk it up, but relative to his ability I wouldn't be surprised if he felt he had.

Keep in mind that some kids do not showcase well especially in the initial event.

See the same kid in a tournament in team play and you may see a different player, a much better player.

PG Do you agree ?

TR, Yes there are lots of players who play much better than they showcase. These are players who play much better than their tools would dictate. Best example of this at the top level would be David Eckstein. There are also those who showcase well, but don’t take it to the game. Those guys are interesting because of their high potential. Good example from a former top level player would be Shawan Dunston.

quote:

Does a player's previous rating have any bearing on his "new" rating at a later showcase? Is there consideration given from prior "ratings" as to the new rating? Ex: A 9.5 goes out and can't catch a cold and hits poorly. Since he was a 9.5 previously, what is he rated for this showcase?

To be honest we try hard not to drop a player's grade much whenever possible. However, it does happen some times.

The grade is always recorded and the last phase before filing it includes checking previous grades. If we see we have a player graded an 8 and we find out we earlier graded him a 9 it sets off a red flag. This doesn't necessarily mean we will raise the 8, but we will take a second look at everything. The truth is that if we once saw a 9, he's more than likely a 9 and he just had a bad day.

Some might think this is confusing, but look at it this way. If a hitter hits a bunch of long balls and looks great at the plate so you grade him a 9 for hitting and the next time he doesn't look as good at the plate without much good solid contact... Is he a 9 based on potential or is he the hitter you saw the second time? Once a player or pitcher shows you something, he has proven what he is capable of. Only thing left isn't potential or ability, but it's consistency.

Often we grade a player as a sophomore and despite running better times, throwing better ect. we grade him the same as a junior. That is because we are grading on potential and so if we were correct the first time that player should be better a year later.

Hope some of that makes sense.

PG,
Just curious, when you say you grade on potential, is that just another word for "projectibility"? How do you define that often used assessment which seems to the uninformed to boil down to tall thin kids are good, physically mature kids are maxed out? No agenda here (in fact I have a tall thin kid) just curious.

igball,

Obviously I don't know as much as I'd like to know, but I don't mind answering questions if possible. That said, I tend to be paranoid regarding people who might (for some reason) have an agenda and would enjoy seeing us bite the dust. I don't think you have any reason for asking questions other than being interested. Also, "boyinr" sent me a PM that both makes sense and assures there is no agenda. I plan to answer his PM as soon as possible.

Anyway, FWIW here is an attempt to reply to your post. These are my opinions, not the gospel, and others could probably add a lot more.

Projection/potential is the most difficult and inexact part of scouting.

It does have quite a bit to do with size, body type, strength or lack of present strength and projected size. However there are many other things that can cause scouts to think a player projects well. Probably too many things to list them all here, but here are a few things to consider.

1 – Athletic actions
2 - Bloodlines
3 – Effortless movements
4 – Quickness shown in any area
5 – Any type of natural ability
6 – Feel for the game
7 – Work ethic and desire
8 – Competitiveness
9 – Instincts
10 – Hand eye coordination
11 - Comparisons
12 - Anything unusual

Also knowing the growth history of a player can be revealing. Sometimes, a young player who has grown a lot in a short period of time will take awhile to adjust his coordination to his new body.

One more thing… Once in awhile a player physically projects the opposite way. For example, a pitcher with a nice fluid and quick arm is throwing mid 80s, but he is overweight and his body lacks conditioning (soft). Rather than getting bigger this pitcher could have lots of projection based on him actually losing weight and getting in better shape. We have seen this happen several times over the years. In fact, the lack of conditioning can cause any size player to have some projection. Of course, these things don’t project as well if the player is missing a lot of the things listed above.

Things like desire, heart, persistance, mental toughness, and courage are very difficult to evaluate. These are things that are hard to put a grade on by seeing a player for only a couple days or couple times. The one thing that always stands out is when we see a player making significant improvements over time. There is no reason to believe that player will stop improving anytime soon, so he becomes easier to project.

Projection is a guessing game where some people are much better at guessing than other people are. Mostly they are better due to experience!

Thanks PG. What's your projection for the weather in the midwest this spring?

Very wet... followed by periods of dry and wet weather.

I just wish it would warm up and stay warm. This has been a bad winter, as if I need to tell you or anyone else who lives up here. I hear rz (WI) got it even worse!

Thank you very much for your PM PGStaff. You answered my questions. Thanks again.

PGStaff I posted a reply to your PM.

"3/4 arm slot on mound, arm works, ASR FB, works quickly, compact delivery, gets extension"

What does the above mean from my sophomore son's Perfect Game evaluation? I am not sure what "arm works, ASR FB" means. Any help would be appreciated.....

I'm guessing ASR stands for arm side run on his fastball. Movement to the throwing arm side.

I think that his arm works is a good thing too.

32Fastball, all of the PG descriptions sound positive to me. "Arm Works" means his arm works well (efficiently) and he apparently has fluid mechanics. 3/4 arm slot to me is the optimum slot. Works quickly is good because it tires and dominates the hitters.. the hitters are getting attacked. And arm side run is great because a flat fastball can be launced a long way! Just make sure he can find the strike zone with that run. Is he throwing a 2-seam to get the run?