3finger- I know people who can give you a very good estimate on how a kid will project from when they are 12-14. You would have to be able to see what a great college or pro guy looked like when they were younger and analyze their attributes on what made them successful later on- see the whole cycle of maturation.
Lots of variables but there are lots of characteristics on successful players. The first one is tons of talent (including genetics). The second one is great inner drive and work ethic. The third one is a firm belief that they "belong" at that next level. You can see it in a guy. All the guys that I know that made it were wired that way.
quote:
Originally posted by 3FingeredGlove: Gingerbread Man,
I agree that while only 1% of 12 year olds who play baseball end up playing at a high college level, more than 1% are physically talented. Maybe 10% have the physical attributes to succeed. That's why I wrote "talent and mental makeup." It takes both qualities in combination to succeed. I think you mentioned many of the mental/psychological/emotional issues that keep boys with adequate talent from going far in baseball.
quote:
Originally posted by RJM: .....successsful LL all-star team there are only four playing high school baseball..... ...A very large percentage of preteen studs fail before high school.
I claim that there a some "seers" who can, with moderate success, pick out the pre-teen kids who are likely to make it in college. I don't know how they do it, but I am pretty sure that selection to an all star team is not one of the criteria.
And "stud", which presumably means good production on the field, isn't likely to be sufficient or even necessary. I suppose that the seers are looking at a players ability to, for example, react quickly to a batted ball. Can an infielder range to a ground ball, and then get to an athletic throwing position quickly? Can he then in a split second decide correctly whether to throw or hold the ball? Or to instead decide to throw behind a different runner? Does a hitter have the visual capability to pick up, identify, and track a pitch? If he is a pitcher, does he really want the ball? Can he stand the slow pace of baseball, or relish the social interactions during the 50% of the game he is watching from the bench? Does his interest in baseball flag when the inevitable difficulties arise? Do his physical and mental attributes match baseball better than other popular sports?
See, none of these things depend much on stature or level of hormonal maturity, or the size of the diamond. Yet they are all (I think, but I'm not even remotely one of the "seers") critical to success in baseball.
Our inability to project young players dosn't mean that it can't be done; it just means that we aren't taking into account the correct player attributes. Again, I've met a couple of guys who can project young players surprisingly accurately.
Posts: 477 | Location: northern california | Registered: January 01, 2003
ncball, no my son is not small at all, he is 5'11" at 14. My comments is toward the big kids in our high rank travel team. I just feel frastated that they got the perfect body (6'2" 175lb), but yet can't hit a thing. The good part is that our coach know it, he put them at 6, 8 slot. The 5'8" guy hits 3rd, my son hit 4th.
My point is that focus on the size only in this thread is misleading. To Id the pre-teen hitters who can make to the top, you should focus on his hitting ability more. The 5'8" guy at 14 may grow to 6'4" in 2 years, or he may stop grow at 5'10", but with great hitting skill, that won't matter at all. He will at least make to the college with a decent GPA. I don't see those two big kids in our team will go anywhere after HS.
BTW, RJM, we are not talking about "All things equal" here, we are talking about "ID the pre-teen players who go far." Focus on size at pre-teen level makes no sense. JMHO
Posts: 74 | Location: U.S.A | Registered: January 23, 2009
bbking- You are still talking about a very small sampling. The stumbling point here is projecting size. If a kid sucks, he sucks. Doesn't matter the size.
Posts: 477 | Location: northern california | Registered: January 01, 2003
Originally posted by ncball: If a kid sucks, he sucks. Doesn't matter the size.
That's exactly what I am talking about, thanks ncball. The average size for a American Male is about 6', so couple more inches taller or shorter won't matter a lot. We should focus on the skill in this topic "ID....go far."
Posts: 74 | Location: U.S.A | Registered: January 23, 2009
The 5'8" guy at 14 may grow to 6'4" in 2 years, or he may stop grow at 5'10", but with great hitting skill, that won't matter at all.
Not true. My son has always been a very good hitter. He's a much better hitter than last year and the year before from growth and physical development.
As the game gets faster and more challenging, the player has to keep developing. A kid who grows to 6'2" or 6'3" is more likely to have more power than a 5'10" kid. Other things equal, the kid with the longer stride is going to be faster. Are there exceptions, yes.
* To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical. -- Thomas Jefferson *
Posts: 4674 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: October 29, 2007
bbking- You couldn't be more off-base on this one. First of all, color of skin? Huh? What does that have to do with anything? Secondly, genetics are huge in baseball. Think of all the players who had relatives play pro ball. I've had a bunch in my program. Yes, it matters alot!
Posts: 477 | Location: northern california | Registered: January 01, 2003
more off-base on this one. First of all, color of skin? Huh? What does that have to do with anything? Secondly, genetics are huge in baseball
That was in response to RJM'S POST, "pick your parents", what's that for?
That's why I don't like to hear someone to "genotype" others like those Nazi's do. Tall or short, white or black, big or small, gey or straight? Does it matter? You got have skill to play. I rest my case.
Posts: 74 | Location: U.S.A | Registered: January 23, 2009
Where do you think the physical skill to become a baseball player comes from? While there are exceptions, most high end athletes come from athletic parents. There's a kid I mentor since his parents don't understand baseball. While neither of his parents played sports at a high level, I found out his dad was an exception s****r player until his family escaped to America and had to work to help support the family. A lot of parents had the skills if not the resume. They just didn't cultivate the talent.
You're a D1 college coach. Which player do you want?
A) 5'7", 150 pound, first team high school all-conference pitcher with impeccable control and an 80 mph fastball
B) 6'3", 200 pound, pitcher from same high school conference with mediocre stats, wild and a 92 mph fastball
* To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical. -- Thomas Jefferson *
Posts: 4674 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: October 29, 2007
Originally posted by RJM: You're a D1 college coach. Which player do you want? A) 5'7", 150 pound, first team high school all-conference pitcher with impeccable control and an 80 mph fastball B) 6'3", 200 pound, pitcher from same high school conference with mediocre stats, wild and a 92 mph fastball
Well, based on an earlier post, you simply need to find out if only one of the players made his LL all star team. If so, he's one you have to take.
Posts: 1101 | Location: Belmont, CA | Registered: April 01, 2006
Originally posted by ncball: There are plenty of great players that are not very big. I've had almost 20 guys play in the big leagues from my program. The best one is 5'8", in cleats, on cement (Jimmy Rollins). That said, we've had eight 1st round picks and they are all pretty good sized guys (P Burrell-6'5, B Morrow-6'3, T Tulowitzki-6'3, B Mills-6'3, C Gruler-6'2, J Castro-6'4, B Wallace-6'2, D Cooper-6'1. Numbers don't lie.
First round picks are an elite group, comprising 1% of the 1% that make it to top 350 college programs. I think you see larger than average players in top 50 or so college programs, but it is interesting to me that mid-major D1 schools seem to have lots of average size players. I took a look at the Santa Clara roster (cherry-picked because I've stood by as the team walked past me several times; half of them are my height or shorter) and they list 9 players at less than 6 feet, and 8 more at 6 even. I also had a brief conversation with one of their pitchers a couple of weeks ago; he's listed at 6-1, but I could look him directly in the eye, and I'm not 6 feet unless shoes are involved.
The inference I draw is that size matters, but there isn't an unlimited pool of big and talented players. A talented sub-6 footer has an excellent chance to contribute in college.
Posts: 1101 | Location: Belmont, CA | Registered: April 01, 2006
I've seen plenty of short kids who were fabulous baseball players, and tall kids who couldn't get down fast enough to field a ground ball. I personally don't believe there's any correlation between height and baseball ability. But MLB has placed a premium on height, so the tall guys are preferred.
(not sour grapes... my 15-year-old is 6'1")
LHPMom
Posts: 233 | Location: Maryland | Registered: November 12, 2008
Originally posted by RJM: You're a D1 college coach. Which player do you want? A) 5'7", 150 pound, first team high school all-conference pitcher with impeccable control and an 80 mph fastball B) 6'3", 200 pound, pitcher from same high school conference with mediocre stats, wild and a 92 mph fastball
Well, based on an earlier post, you simply need to find out if only one of the players made his LL all star team. If so, he's one you have to take.
I don't have any idea what you mean. My view of LL or any preteen ball is a strong majority of preteen studs won't be playing by high school. What is the connection between the two high school sample pitchers and LL? I believe you know which one the college coach will recruit.
* To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical. -- Thomas Jefferson *
Posts: 4674 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: October 29, 2007
Originally posted by LHPMom2012: I personally don't believe there's any correlation between height and baseball ability. But MLB has placed a premium on height, so the tall guys are preferred.
Do you understand why? All else equal the bigger kid is going to project out better. The bigger kid is more likely to be stronger, hit and throw harder. What happens is not all bigger kids are equal. Some lack the heart and lose the motivation to make it. No one said a shorter player can't make it. But the reality is there are more taller MLB'ers than short ones. It's not an opinion.
* To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical. -- Thomas Jefferson *
Posts: 4674 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: October 29, 2007
Originally posted by RJM: I like a friend's quote: If you want to be a pro athlete pick your parents carefully.
For basketball players, maybe? And skin color may also be a factor.
Please explain what skin color has to do with basketball. Do you think black people are taller than white people? Basketball is a cultural thing in the black community. In the black community most of what you see is basketball and some football. If you want to find the kids, find the basketball court. In the suburbs you'll see kids playing a multitude of sports. Why are the European players in college ball and the NBA mostly white?
"But for baseball, it's everyone's game. Not a lot of size required here, you can be very strong and speedy at 5'10-6'."
No one said a baseball player can't be 5'10". What I won't do that other people do is post all the exceptions to the basketball debate, like Jameer Nelson.
"RJM I guess you are a former basketball player, aren't you?"
I played high school basketball. I was a 6'1" point guard. I was the eighth tallest (or fifth shortest depending on your view) player on my team.
* To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical. -- Thomas Jefferson *
Posts: 4674 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: October 29, 2007
I understand why. I'm just not sure I believe the conventional wisdom behind it. The implication is that height is a causative factor for baseball ability, or atleast a correlating factor. So in other words, we could line up all MLB players, tallest to shortest, and find a correlating decrease in batting average and increase in errors. For pitchers, the taller they are, the smaller their ERA. But I don't think it works that way.
LHPMom
Posts: 233 | Location: Maryland | Registered: November 12, 2008
I understand why. I'm just not sure I believe the conventional wisdom behind it. The implication is that height is a causative factor for baseball ability, or atleast a correlating factor.
My 5-9 outfielder son had to prove himself a little harder than the 6"+ outfielders he was competing for on the varsity. He had to prove he can play with speed and track down balls and have power which he did for his size. He must've took advantage of his opportunities in the tryouts and scrimages because he was one of the starting 9 and after spending a few games batting 6th or 7th, he moved to batting 3rd and occasionally 2nd depending on the lineup.
I agree there's more to a baseball player than height but they do get the benefit of the doubt and a better look over the shorter player.
It does seem that bigger players have to prove they can fail while smaller players have to prove they can play. It's just the way it is.
I do believe height is less a factor for infielders(excluding 1B)and catchers than it is for outfielders and pitchers.
Posts: 830 | Location: NJ | Registered: October 27, 2007
Originally posted by RJM: I don't have any idea what you mean.
Really? See your second post in this thread, in which you argued that selection to a LL all star team is "where you start" in finding the pre-teen player who will go far, and that any sufficiently talented player will have made his all star team.
My previous emotican-marked post was just poking fun, and pointing out that selection to LL all stars really isnt't a useful criterion for the subject of this whole thread.
Posts: 1101 | Location: Belmont, CA | Registered: April 01, 2006
