I know, I know, I said I wouldn't post again, but here's a couple drafted out of HS players, Matt Bush and Trevor Plouffe. Their results would have had non-"cream of the crop" players released already. There are many more examples where those came from. They may have the talent to go on to the big leagues but there's also no guarantee they'd have been anything special on a good D1 team their first year out of HS and especially not immediately after HS graduation. Understandably, we're seeing a lot of parochialism in this. BTW, It is amazing how cream of the crop goes from anyone who was drafted in the first 30 rounds to 1st round picks when one is trying to win an argument.

BBscout,
I haven't checked but maybe you can tell me how many of the players you listed as players who have advanced so far in 3 years played short season A ball in their first year and how many played short season A ball in their second year. Remember the D1 players are mostly 2nd through 4th year players and the ones who couldn't cut it have been weeded out while it probably takes most of a short season to weed uninjured players out of short season A.

FBM,
I believe AJ went to a short season A team immediately after his junior season at UCR. How did he do there? Did he struggle against those teams more than he did against the better college teams?

As far as the older players being down there I played on a team with players just out of AA and players currently in A ball against teams with players just out of AA and players in A ball. We were no better than the local JC teams.

Just remember that if there was a Zito and a Prior and even a Jered Weaver in the College ranks before there's similar players there now and they are generally playing for those top 50 D1s.

bbscout

So do I!

Cadad, The same year Plouffe and Bush were drafted, 2004 which would have made the players Frosh this past year, the following guys were taken too....Walker, Butler, Elbert, Golson, Hughes, Waldrop, DeWitt, and Hurley. They all did well at advanced levels. As 19 year olds, Plouffe and Bush were in the Midwest League which is way past any level of D1 ball. In 2003 the class that would have been Sophs this past year included Young, Lubanski. Harvey, Danks, Stewart, Milledge, Moses, Wood, Barton and Billingsley. The only one who had a tough time from the 03 group was Allison, who had off field problems.

I would like to ask you this question....have you seen a short season team play? The nearest one to you is in Eugene, Oregon.

bbscout,
No I haven't. How many games have you seen between top 50 D1 teams and short season A teams?

How many of the players you listed played short season A? If they all did then you've got a good point. If many of them didn't then obviously they aren't the players we need to be comparing D1 players to. Remember, one of the things I stipulated in my original post was that low A was better than D1.

It isn't their year that is equivalent to their frosh year that counts in this discussion, it is their post HS season when they'd most likely be playing short season ball, barring the exceptions correctly noted by FBM.

Here's another point - 14 players from CSF were drafted last year. I've got to believe that some of the sophmores will also be drafted next year and would have been drafted this year if eligible. They could virtually field their own short season A team. Now typically a good D1 has about 6 to 7 players drafted each year and probably has another 6 to 7 who would be drafted if eligible. Add to that the players who are very good but not projectable and I find it very hard to believe they aren't as good as an average short season A team.

Cadad, Every one of the players played in the short season right after they signed. The following year, they advanced to "A" and in some cases "AA" and "AAA".As you well know, D1 teams don't play pro teams, but on the average, I see about 50 D1 games every year and about 70 minor league games every year ranging from short season and Instructional League up through "AAA". What that does is allow me to compare.

If you have never seen a short season game, why would you try to compare it to D1 baseball.

bbscout,
If they haven't played each other you can't really compare them. It is merely conjecture just like we're doing, although as usual I'll admit you are far more qualified to make that comparison and I wouldn't bet anything I couldn't afford to lose against you. It is still fun to discuss it.

I went through several players on the Yakima Bears roster for this past season as they were a team I knew to be a short season A team. Generally speaking there were no players straight out of HS so my argument on that doesn't apply at all. My bad.

I also noted that the majority of the players who I looked at on that team were drafted in the 20th or 30th round or even later. The older players on the team looked to be players who had not done that well and were trying to come back from an injury with limited success. To be honest on paper the talent level wasn't as good as what you'd expect from a good D1 team and if the other teams in the league are equivalent then it is no surprise that a good pitcher from a good D1 such as AJ came directly from school and dominated that league when he went through there.

When AJ went to the NWL, he was no longer a D1 player, he was a pro. Bring on the UC Riverside pitcher and team who would now try to beat AJ when he now has a pro catcher, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, Cf, Lf, Rf,DH, along with a pro bullpen etc.

As far as your statement about conjecture, my words are based on about 40 years of playing and scouting and probably seeing about 3000 games from the dugout and the stands, not trying to check out a NWL website to argue something that I have never seen.

The D Backs top ten picks that signed were spaced this way....4 at Yakima and 6 at Missoula, which is a lower short season team than Yakima.

Upton has not signed and Owings went to the Cal League.

So, 10 out of their first 11 picks that signed went to short season ball.

....and so a new chapter for the book, "The Gospel According TO BBSCOUT".

With only a reverent intent and gratitude for your taking the time to post.....................

FO, The reason that I have been so persistant posting on this thread is this.....we have many people on this site who just read and listen to advice and if incorrect advice is given, they can make decisions based on the advice. My thoughts on College are this.....if you are good enough to play pro ball out of high school and pro ball is your #1 priority, then you should sign. If you are good enough to play pro ball out of high school and education is your #1 priority, then you should go to college.

College baseball is not pro ball, nor should it be thought of that way. It is college ball....period. There is no comparison as pro ball is a higher level.

interesting points on both sides
the catch22 seems to be that the best DI examples were draft eligible and went pro so now they can't be used in a DI/Rookie Pro comparison playing againt themselves

quote:

by chill: faith in bbscout to understand his opinion is from years of experience....and we should value the opinion of those who do it for a living.

point taken, and I do enjoy the wisdom of experience, but would you prefer a bbscout post just be followed by 25 posts with clapping hands??

baseball is a game where opinionated fans live to debate, sometimes viewpoints are changed, sometimes not



a bit off topic, but I gotta admire (not love) 43 yr old Clemens DH bunt - wondering, will A Boone be able to do that someday


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bbscout,
No matter how much experience you have it is still conjecture. As the saying goes "That's why they play the game." Why are you so upset about a discussion on a website? I'm just putting out an argument that I believe in and you are putting out an opposing argument from a more authoritative position. The people who bother to read these know that you have far more experience in this than I do and will take it into account. The reality is that I have a better feel for how good the pro players are than I do for how good the college players are. In my limited playing experience I played against pros more often than I played against college players.

AJ was playing in the pros only a few weeks after playing in college, so I doubt there was a quantum leap in ability. I'd have been happy to see the UCR team play the Yakima Bears in a series right after that college season ended. Would have been quite interesting although it would have been hard for AJ to pitch against himself. My guess is that the majority of the starting lineup for Riverside that season is now playing or did play pro ball so I think it would have been a pretty good matchup with Riverside possibly have better pitching at the top.

quote:

My thoughts on College are this.....if you are good enough to play pro ball out of high school and pro ball is your #1 priority, then you should sign. If you are good enough to play pro ball out of high school and education is your #1 priority, then you should go to college.

That statement I'll agree with 99%. I do believe that a player who is good enough to get drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and gets round money should go pro and put money aside for college unless they have no desire to ever play professional baseball. You can get a college degree after taking a few years off although doing so does reduce the probability of finishing the degree.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
bbscout,
No matter how much experience you have it is still conjecture. As the saying goes "That's why they play the game." Why are you so upset about a discussion on a website? I'm just putting out an argument that I believe in and you are putting out an opposing argument from a more authoritative position. The people who bother to read these know that you have far more experience in this than I do and will take it into account. The reality is that I have a better feel for how good the pro players are than I do for how good the college players are. In my limited playing experience I played against pros more often than I played against college players.

AJ was playing in the pros only a few weeks after playing in college, so I doubt there was a quantum leap in ability. I'd have been happy to see the UCR team play the Yakima Bears in a series right after that college season ended. Would have been quite interesting although it would have been hard for AJ to pitch against himself. My guess is that the majority of the starting lineup for Riverside that season is now playing or did play pro ball so I think it would have been a pretty good matchup with Riverside possibly have better pitching at the top.

AJ and two others (Festa and Hoff) were drafted and signed. One other player(Torres) signed as a free agent in 2004.

I find this thread very interesting. Ive been to minor league games, but not any div I. games. The University of Delaware use to play the Wilmington Blue rocks (high A)once a year. But I couldnt tell you who won

...been to a spring's worth of D1 games seeing my son play sometimes and getting to know the strengths of the players.

Hard to imagine looking around at the end of the season and think, "This is JUST D1 ball......"

And I looked up and around the conference and a rare few out of the 350-400 players were drafted.

Some were talented athletes good enough to play, but maybe not good enough in the eyes of scouts to become MLB ball players. I don't know.

They were there, still wanted to try to play and signed as free agents as the MLB boys knew they would for just a monthly salary.

And even at this level we look for generalizations of methods to "make it".

Now, it's talent, hard work, a lot of luck, and you get a shot, no guaranteed roster spots, like travel, high school, and maybe some colleges, too.

It's not about turns anymore.

It's about the best.................

Only about 750 at a time.................

Go for it.

Just read through this thread - and I still cant believe that anyone would think that a D1 - aluminum bat swinging Top 20 team could compete effectively with any level of pro ball - Including short season A.

I have certainly seen my share of both - and unless I was going to all the wrong games - there is no comparison IMO.

You could argue all day about top kids that signed after junior year - that would have remained on the team and therefore would have provided more competition to pro ball Low A teams. But that is exactly the point IMO. The cream of the crop - out of high school - and after eligilibity in college - go to the pro level.

For goodness sake - you got many college "stars" that go to the wood bat leagues in the summer - and flat out stink.

I do not understand the comparison - or the basis for the comparison.

After this post - I will just continue to read and scratch my head.

The whole debate makes little sense to me.

Have been to about 25 games in short season A and a few more than that in low A, plus a week watching Spring training and Spring training games for about 7-8 hours per day. Also have been a season ticket holder at Sunken Diamond at Stanford and have seen 100's of games involving some of the top DI programs/players in the nation.
IMO, it is very important to recognize that players have to improve every time they move to the next level. To imagine a DI program limited to 11.7 scholarships and a recruiting budget can compete with a professional team signing the best players from the US, Latin America, Asia,etc is not realistic. CaDad, one of the most enlightening experiences is Spring training in mid March. You will see 180-200 players competing for 100 spots on rosters that begin April 7. Intensity, effort, and skills are amazing, especially when you realize that player 200 was an All American/best player/all conference/MVP.
These are players who see a teammate end his career regularly, when they are cut. They do not want that to be them...and they play like it.

quote:

Have been to about 25 games in short season A and a few more than that in low A, plus a week watching Spring training and Spring training games for about 7-8 hours per day.

quote:

one of the most enlightening experiences is Spring training in mid March. You will see 180-200 players competing for 100 spots on rosters that begin April 7. Intensity, effort, and skills are amazing, especially when you realize that player 200 was an All American/best player/all conference/MVP.

Was fortunate to make Spring training with my boys when they were young....

Wondered then what it would be like to have a son out there.......

But, no way to appreciate the talent and effort at that time.........

Thanks for posting that perspective, infielddad

I can feel that spring sun and breeze and smell the fresh cut grass right now.

good discussion, I appreciate the dialog
I'm always willing to listen and learn

ex: I had always thought that so-called "filler players" were spread thru-out the system as needed - but have come to learn from IFdad that ALL are legit prospects, and some "fillers" are former all-american/all-conference mvp's - also that after the "cream of the crop" there's really not a whole lot of difference between a 10th round guy, 30th round guy or a free agent signee

and then - "bbscout" reasonably believes about 600 ABs with wood will start to project future ability, while "itsinthegame" can read it in about a month

sometimes the more I learn the "confused-er" I get



but anyway - maybe some will input on the "less contoversial"
part deux of the ORIGINAL Question

quote:

"love to hear some opinions . . college vs pro conditioning"

I only have a feel for college conditioning/training

lifting/condtioning offseason under the supervision of a strength coach 6 days a week - (a modified schedule inseason)
offseason daily individual skills sessions (4 on 1)
30 days offseason "team" practice, skills, intersquads, etc
summer wood bat league placement
athletic cafeteria training table diet w/ meat, fresh fruit, veggies, milk, cereal, yogurt, ice cream, juice, protien shakes, nutrient bars, etc
nutrition education, kinesiology lab, computer aided motion analysis lab, video overlay analysis, vision training, and team trainer(s) and medical staff
documentation reports of the player's strength/condtioning and progress with injuries/treament from the day he arrived on campus


my knowledge of the pro routine is nil, except noting they play 140 games a season, are mostly on their own, frequently on the road, and it's often implied that fast food is the staple



thanks in advance



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