Well summarized ClevelandDad.

quote:

I don't think the best players are always drafted out of HS, I think the most signable are.

And an important point from TPM too.

While infielddad's post was very good, Fungo added the finishing touches when he commented on depth.

I do not agree that all minorleague players are prospects, however.

quote:

I do not agree that all minorleague players are prospects, however.

Chill, you are absolutely correct!. The fact that MLB is talking about reducing the draft to 30 rounds and dissolving the GCL,AZL and even compacting players into the Appalachian league suggests, amongst other things, that there are way more "players" than "prospects."
From what I have been able to learn, it appears players drafted in the first 10 rounds, and a few others drafted later, begin their pro career as a "prospect." If they struggle, they are given a longer look to see if they can maintain/increase their status.
Drafted after the 10th round, you have to prove/earn prospect status by performing well whenever you get a chance. Even then, you probably won't fully know when or if you have transitioned from one to the other. Words from your manager to the effect that "you have put yourself on the radar and you have earned your position" sure have a nice "ring" to them though!
Additionally, organizations are very different in their approach and how long they will give "non prospects" a chance to prove themselves.

Just a quick story. Was at a "Roast" Saturday night for Dusty Rhodes-UNF head coach-it was also a fundraiser(raised $100,000). Former player came to the microphone and gave Rhodes all the credit for being in the Major League today.
Mike Wood-KC Royals said he was given an opportunity to play DII ball(now DI) and
he was 6'1", 155#-an infielder that barely could hit 80mph. He told Dusty if it weren't for him he would not have made it to the bigs.

Point being, it's tough to know what the future will hold for a young guy with little talent. But if the desire is there and a coach can see "past" the obvious
shortcomings and develop the strengths miracles can happen. Scouting, imo, is more
of an art than a science and the "good" scouts will trust their instincts more than their radar gun or their stopwatch.

if I'm missing something I'm sure someone will set me straight

anway a teams 1-10 round choices will be spread among 3 or 4 teams, last yrs top guys moved up a level, but some guys repeating are developing well - others are filler type players

so explain again why a good Tennessee, Texas, or Tulane team could not match up with "rookie" team in a best of 5 series

by bbscout:"The cream of the crop high school players never see college, as they recieve large bonus' to sign"

the numbers don't bear this out.
18 of 30 in 1rst round of the '05 draft were college guys.
those guys would be the 50% of a former hs "cream of the crop class" who didn't take the bonus and thought the college route would be good for them and were right.


there seems to be room for a good debate here



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Bee, some things that might be overlooked about Rookie league rosters:
They are filled with Latin players, some of whom have signed for very significant bonuses. They are hungry and can play. Might be raw but they can play.
Rosters also contain a fair number of JC players who were signed as draft and follows the prior year or who have just signed instead of transferring to a DI program.
Fillers: can play...a lot and some become prospects. Players who are "fillers" often were stars on their college teams.
If you were to compare the #6-9 hitters and the 5th-12th pitcher on a staff in rookie ball with those at a top DI, you will likely find the #6-9 and the pitchers were stars at the collegiate level, JC level or just signed a huge bonus out of a Latin country. Even at the schools you have listed, the #6-9 players/5th-12th pitchers are very good college players, but may not even be "fillers."
Professional baseball is taking the very best from a pool that is scouted nationally and beyond. By and large, even the top DI's are limited in recruiting by budget and 11.7 so they look regionally for the most part.

The cream of the crop of HS players does sign. When the draft is held and as you said there was 12 HS guys taken in the first round, they won't be available for the draft 3 years from now. Add on about 10-15 more HS kids that teams backed off on because of signability and drafted later on in the draft and then signed them, and the cream is about 25-30 high school players that don't head off to college, and won't be in the draft pool 3 years from now.

Also, a teams top 10 picks are usually spread over two teams, not 3-4.In fact a teams top 20 picks are usually spread over two teams.

As far as kids going to College and improving and turning into high picks......of course they do, but the topic was about D1 teams competing against minor league teams of all levels. D1 ball is not even Rookie ball. It is not even close to "A" ball and the guys that think it is "AA" caliber have no clue at all.

I forgot about the international signs

OK so my match-up team combo will be Tulanasee,
pitching rotation
Hochevar
Bogesevich
Adkins
Owings





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Are those fellas still in college?

Bee

As long as your closer is Neighborgall.

oops b'scout, would ya believe I wrote that earlier??

AND we'll play it "with/on" EAsports Baseball
NCAA Baseball - it beats the he-ll out of a moose (or is that mouse) rolling dice


someone will have to enter the latin player's stats (in english please)


d04, yea but - I never comment on Neighborgall stuff - great kid wishing him the best

too bad about Bonifay??

bee



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It takes some of those "cream of the crop" kids signed out of HS a few years to catch up. In the meanwhile they are being kept on teams and being given playing time due to their potential more than their current ability to compete. In many cases they aren't as good of players at the moment as college players who will never be drafted.

I think you can look at how pitchers coming out of D1 fare in short season ball and A ball and get a pretty good idea how the minors match up with D1. D1 pitchers usually do pretty well in short season A. Full season A ball is another story and a fair jump upwards. I think a top D1 (let's say top 50) is as good as an average short season team but would get trounced day in and day out by a full season A team, although obviously a good college pitcher having a good day will be able to keep their team in a game. The short season team is still weeding out players and has a mixed talent base while the full season A team has done some of the weeding and is going to be too deep for a college team.

I got into a long "discussion" on this subject once before so this will be my only post on this one.

Very good post CaDad. I think you hit the nail on the head with that one.

Caldad, I have to disagree very much with most of your post. Saying it takes the cream a few years to catch up is wrong unless you mean catching up to Clemens or Manny. Compared to the college guys who were Juniors this year, the cream from 2002 who would have been Juniors this year are "way" ahead of their classmates. Upton, Greinke, Fielder, Hermida, Kazmir, Francoeur and Cain are all first rounders out of HS in 2002 who have reached the Big Leagues. Santos in "AAA", Loney, Span and Hamels in "AA" will be there next year. Everts (TJ surgery) and Gruler (2 shoulder operations) are behind.They were the cream from 2002. 7 out of 13 have made the big leagues and 4 more will be there next year.

If they are good enough to play in the big leagues, don't you think they would have made a dent this year in college. By the way, one HS 1st rounder from 2002 did not sign. John Mayberry signed this year and hit .250 in short season ball.

Yourreasoning of how D1 pitchers fare in Short season ball is like saying all the high school pitchers will fare well in college. Some do and some don't.

Saying that a top 50 D1 team is as good as a short season team is nonsense.Only the best 3-4 players on the D1 team get to play short season ball. If you rounded up the 4 best players from each team in the Pac 10, don't you think they would beat up on a single Pac 10 team? That is what you are dealing with.

To make a good comparison, a fellow should go see about 20 D1 games and then watch about 20 short season games. I just finished my pro reports for the year. I reported on 317 minor league players after seeing all the major college teams on the west coast this spring.

I am now waiting for someone to say that the top 30 high school teams in the nation can beat up on D1 college teams.

bbscout

Trust me--someone will !!!

Too many people have opinions on things they have no knowledge about and all too many people take what they read on a website as "gospel"

One other factor that I would like to mention regarding short season A ball and full season (low) A ball ... quite a few players on each team are NOT first year players. Short season teams often have several returning players who were in extended spring training ... for several reasons including (but not limited to) rehabs and even position conversions. Likewise, full season (low) A can have quite a few "repeat performers" who are actually in their 3rd year (2nd full season). (Our son had several of each on both his short season and his low A teams the past 2 years.) With returning players like this at the lower levels, it puts an added twist on the level of play at these levels ... which I believe is quite a bit different than even the best D-1 college programs.

I will admit that I was a believer in the "a good D-1 team is comparable to short season / low A / high A / AA ... pick one" but I have definitely changed my opinion since watching 3 pro levels over the past 2 summers ... there is definitely a difference ... IMHO.

many of the latin players have 2 yrs pro experience by the time they turn 18.

quote:

I never comment on Neighborgall stuff - great kid wishing him the best

too bad about Bonifay??

I wish him well too. He's perservered when many would not.

The DRays have mostly drafted very well but plugged in shabby vets on the cheap. They should have brought up Delmon Young and they need pitchers besides Danny Baez and Kazmir. Brazleton is a bust.

FBM

Although you have seen it with your own eyes I bet you have enough faith in bbscout to understand his opinion is from years of experience....and we should value the opinion of those who do it for a living.

There are many, many examples of top players at one level, who cannot succeed at the next level because they are simply not good enough. It is not a dig at the player but simply a fact. The level of play is completely different.

Chill, I actually agree with FBM's post 100%.