I keep hearing the talking heads go on and on about how it's absurd for Strasburg/Boras to be floating $50 million or figures in that neighborhood.

Well, let's do the math.

The Nats have a brand new park that they've never been able to fill from day one, and this year attendance is down already in just its second year. The team has a few bats in place and a lot of young pitching in the pipeline, but there's nothing really to draw fans out right now. Even reduced prices haven't reeled 'em in.

Now, suppose Strasburg gets to MLB by the end of July. Time enough to do 14 starts, 7 of which would be home dates. In 2010, estimate 34 starts, 17 of which would be home dates.

Now, take the number of additional fans you think would show up for those first 24 starts on average, multiply it by 24, then multiply it by the average ticket price. Then add a factor for what the average fan drops at the concession stand.

Then think about the spike in sales of Nats logo wear, esp. jerseys with Strasburg's name across the back. Then think about the uptick in ratings for Nats broadcasts on MASN cable TV, and the resulting increase in ad revenue.

Honestly, it's not hard to come up with $50 million. So tell me, why shouldn't he get it? Because if he doesn't, it just goes to the team ownership. If you pooh-pooh his demands, you're basically saying ownership has a better claim to that money than he does. Well, maybe an argument can be made for a return on a capital investment, but you can't blame Strasburg for trying to capture the profits he creates while he has the leverage to do so.

And let's face it, if the Nats let him get away, the fans will drop the Nats completely. So really, Strasburg has them over a barrel, and they knew when they drafted him that this would be the case.

If I were the Nats, I would accept this reality and just bite down hard and sign him quickly. The sooner you sign him, the sooner he starts earning his keep. If you wait until Aug. 17 to sign him, knowing that by then you will absolutely have to cave in the negotiations anyway, all you did was cheat yourself out of those first several high-attendance games.

Midlodad,
You sound like his agent.

Are there enough Nats fans out there to support what your theory?

Problem with that is the assumption that he gets that many MLB starts this season and next. Even if signed early, prudence as opposed to greed, would say that he needs to spend some time in the minors and that he would need to work his way into the rotation more gradually next season if he earns it.

As far as Nats fans go I think both of them would show up every time he pitches.

being the parent of a player, i'd say get what you can while their giving.

it's funny, when you think like a fan. you can't believe the money they pay. when you think like a parent .........well you know.

baseball is a business,when your done their isn't any negotiating they kick you to the curb.

The best method to determine what the true value of Strasburg is would be to allow him to negotiate with every MLB team, not just the Nats. The true market place would then determine his real value. However MLB doesn't want that to happen so they are allowed a special arrangement which is totally to their advantage. Given that fact, the draftees should be encouraged to get every penny they can.

The owners will make up for the Strassburg contract by dramatically underpaying other draftees (becasue of the leverage they have) and no one will ever say a word about it.

Midlo,
You make some HUGE leaps of faith in your assessment.

The biggest of which is that he's ready to be successful in the major leagues.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:

Now, suppose Strasburg gets to MLB by the end of July. Time enough to do 14 starts, 7 of which would be home dates. In 2010, estimate 34 starts, 17 of which would be home dates.

Now, take the number of additional fans you think would show up for those first 24 starts on average, multiply it by 24, then multiply it by the average ticket price. Then add a factor for what the average fan drops at the concession stand.

I think that number might be pretty low if he starts out 3-4 at home.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
So tell me, why shouldn't he get it? Because if he doesn't, it just goes to the team ownership.

For "it" to be there, there has to be profit. You can't assume Strasburg = Profit, he's an unknown quantity. And besides, profit is not a dirty word, owners are entitled to some.

I am very much against the payday for unproven, untested, unknown quantities. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

I don't think he is worth $50 million, and I don't think he has the leverage to get it. I mean, what's he going to do, go to an Indy league and then re-enter the draft next year, just to do it all over again only with less leverage?

But whether he has immediate success in terms of W/L or ERA or whatever, the central fact is this. The Nats cannot fill the stands. Strasburg will fill the stands.

How long will the hype last? What if he goes 0-5 with a high ERA. What if he gets hit hard, or is not ready. His money will be guaranteed, regardless of his performance. That's the issue.

Not necessarily. If he signs an MLB contract instead of the standard MiLB contract -- and this is I would think a near certainty -- it can have some guarantees and some incentive clauses. He might be well advised to bet on himself and tie his compensation to measurable things like sales of jerseys with his name or number on them, the extent to which home attendance on the days he starts exceeds average attendance on other dates, etc.

% of gate and sales? That's movie star stuff. That would be a whole new system of compensation. Why wouldn't that apply to all players?

didn't reggie get a buck a ticket? plus all the change and battery's he could carry from the outfield.

Whatever he makes is fine with me. It's not my money. However, my question is if he gets a % on shirts, how many do you mgf? Who determines the price, and what stores display them? If I were getting compensation based on that, wouldn't you need to get into those types of negotiations? That makes me an equal business partner. What if they make 50,000 shirts, and only 10,000 get sold. Does Straus eat a share of the loss? If avg. attendance is 20,000, does Straus guarantee that? What isfattendance is 19,000 when he pitches. Does Stras pick up the difference? What if attendance jumps to 21,000, but another player is on a long consecutive hit streak at the time? Performance incentives are routine and logical, but few players want the so-caled incentive-laden contract. In the end, players want the guaranteed money, and that makes sence because they are not entrepeneurs under the current labor union baseball contract model.

Lets not compare Reggie to Strasburg here---Reggie was established

As far as I know MLB teams don't give incentives on shirt sales or ticket sales, that's why they pay big bucks, so they can reap the benefits.
He may make some nice cash on appearances, endorsements from companies to wear their stuff or very lucrative card deals though his agent. He will get an MLB contract but paid out over x amount of years, perhaps 5. Unless he's been throwing and doing bull pens he won't be found on the MLB team so quickly, and on 8/15 the season is done for most teams.
My opinion is he would only get called up unless the Nats are in a playoff situation, like Price was last year, because sooner than that his clock starts ticking for arbitration and they want to drag that out as long as possible.

If he does well, his calling card will be when he reaches arbitration but I doubt that he will be on the team that long, they will pay big bucks and hope he does well, so they can sell him off to those that can afford him. That's why they drafted him, they know he will bring a big price they can't afford, but someone else can and give them 2-3 players of value and pick up his MLB contract.

I really think that at 50M, the commissioners office would balk. But then again, they have a stake in the team who drafted him, so who knows.

How much should he get and how much will he get are 2 different things. Ask the Nats #1 pick from last year. Lost a whole year (other than playing indi league) and sounded bitter this year from what they had in the paper; at least towards the Nats. I have not heard the $50 million. I read $20 million, Boras saying that he is worth what the Sox paid for Dice. I would say that Dice was playing pro ball already for a number of years.
Anyway, my mom (no sports fan at all)wouldn't pay $10. She might be talked into buying a Happy Meal if you said he was starving (no hungry wouldn't work). Of course she would come up with a cleaning or grounds job for him to earn the $10. This is a woman who has worked hard all her life, still cans/freezes food at 82 years of age.
Maybe Congress can get involved with the negotiations and offer a stimulus package to him - that way we'll all pay. Of course on that note, the stimulus packages may help bankrupt the country - then Strasburg may want that cleaning/grounds job for $10.
The older I get the more I realize that mom ain't so far off base.
OK enough rambling. He should get enough to tide him over until he make the big leagues - any more is greed and covetousness. I know that won't be, but that's my opinion. Oh and the grounds work would help with strengthening muscles and tendons that may not be hit with the weights and pitching.

Tim Robertson

^ Strasburg shouldn't get too much since he is unproven at the big league level. However, I think he will get Daisuke type money. His agent is Scott Boras, and if he is the best pitching prospect EVER, he will get a pretty penny.

"Selig also hinted that management will propose major changes to the amateur draft during collective bargaining in 2011. It’s possible baseball will propose a firm slotting system of signing bonuses."

On one hand you have signing bonus that can get out of hand, on another hand you have teams offering way under slot money to those who they know have no other option.

MLB's slotting for signing bonuses should be investigated for price fixing.


MLB Slot money

In that same interview, Selig adamantly denied owner collusion in the free agent market in years past.

But apparently he has no problem with collusion in the market for drafted players, who would be free agents but for the draft system.

We're heading for management and existing players making rules for new prospects. No one at the bargaining table to represent the prospects. Slotting is a sure thing come 2012. And the numbers will continue to go down.

The collective bargain is for players in the union I believe. The money the owners pay these unproven kids that get drafted is money that could be going to larger salaries for the players in the union.

The Nationals need to counter Boarass's data and studies and conclusions with the odds of a hard throwing, 1st round draft pick getting injured, because those odds are quite high. Strasburg is not a sure thing, and I've not heard one knowledgable baseball person suggest that he would be in the majors this season.

blprk, like the way you spelled Boras. tee hee, giggle, giggle.