Forgive me if this discussion is impolitic, but being from California, I can't help but notice that a number of players who have been considered for 2 years or more "top prospects" went undrafted or were drafted in round 40+.

I do realize the myriad of possible reasons why this could happen (money, solid college committment, etc), but wondered since we have a few posters here who fit the category if anyone was willing to share their personal experience or that of someone they know/play with, since it may help someone down the road.

Thanks,

Adam Farb
North Bay Xtreme Baseball

I know a few kids that were considered top prospects that didn't get drafted at all or very low. Some for the reasons you stated and some because they were not top prospects to the people who mattered.

quote:

Forgive me if this discussion is impolitic, but being from California, I can't help but notice that a number of players who have been considered for 2 years or more "top prospects" went undrafted or were drafted in round 40+.

I don't think this is a "Left Coast" specific observation enhanced by higher education, salt water, or even smog .... We noticed the same thing here in Tennessee

I subscribe to Baseball America, probably the most informative and accurate media on baseball and draft prospects. I also subscribe and read some websites that analyze college players and make projections and predictions as to how teams will finish and how high (or low) players will be drafted. I read what the scouting bureau has to say about players. I also talk to parents, players, and a few coaches, all giving their opinions on players and their abilities. All this information has prepared me to believe that certain players will be drafted in certain rounds....BUT....All this information has no bearing on where a player will be drafted. This information for the most part is nothing more than educated opinions being expressed to sell publications, sell memberships to websites, and impress the uninformed, gullible reader/subscriber/listener like myself. Even the scouts that generate the evaluations and send that information back through their systems have told me they aren’t sure what bearing their information will have on those making the drafting decisions. The people that make the call on draft day are NOT going to reveal their picks and their game plan ahead of time. Even if they were to inform us ahead of time, it could change with every previous pick. The best way for a player to improve his draft status is to continually work at his game, showcase his talents, and ask his parents to keep their comments to themselves!
Fungo

Fungo is absolutely correct. We know at least two kids who were drafted. Basically, one kid said he had a solid offer and it would take for him to be drafted in the first 10 rounds, to consider not going to college. That is all the scouts needed to hear, he was drafted in the 45th round. Another heard from a scout he would be drafted in the first 10 rounds for sure, and wound up being drafted in the 4th round. Not an exact science. Basically, like fungo says "keep comments and what is said to you, to yourself, and you won't look foolish come draft day". Just my opinion.

As usual, Fungo has given very good advice. My own experience has included many swear words, two phones ripped out of the wall, threat of getting a real job and overall, a lot of frustration. Trying to get a player drafted, and then getting him before someone else does is part of the frustration. Getting an unsignable for worth player drafted is frustrating. Getting a signable player drafted that none of your bosses has seen drafted is frustrating and darn near impossible.Getting a player drafted that you think is a good prospect but your boss does not is frustrating and darn near impossible. Getting a player signed that you fought to get drafted, but was drafted so far down the line that you can't give him any bonus money is frustrating.

Trying to guess where a player will be drafted is asking for frustration and heartbreak. There is only one player in the country who thinks he was drafted in the right spot.....# 1 in the nation. Everyone else thinks that they should have been drafted higher, or were told by someone that they would be drafted higher.

In 1994 I drafted a pitcher in the 37th round, but could not get him signed because they gave me zero to offer him. The next year, I drafted him again, this time in the 40th round and also drafted his catcher in the 24th round. I was given no money to sign either player and was very hot under the collar, as I really liked both of them. The catcher would come over and hit in my cage and the pitcher would come over and throw bullpens off my mound and they were both like son's to me, but my club at the time would not give me any money to sign them. The next year, they went out of state to play college ball and were both drafted and signed. Today, Mike Lincoln is a pitcher in the big leagues with the Cards, and Toby Hall is the starting catcher for the D-Rays.

In 1995, I had a young 1st baseman on my Area Code Team that I felt was by far the best player in the games. The next spring, I was so excited about this player, that I put the highest grade on him that I had ever put on an amateur player, I wanted him in the 1st round, and felt that he belonged there. As the draft started, he was still there after the 1st round. My boss called me an said that if he was there in the 3rd round, we would take him. The 3rd round came and we did not take him, and later in the 3rd round the Yankees took him. That is one of the times that the phone got ripped out of the wall. Today, I now work for the Nationals and my favorite 1st baseman is finally on my side......Nick Johnson, my favorite player that I have ever scouted.

So anyway, scouts go through the same frustrations that the players go through.

rhp05...congratulations on your decision and hearing the kind of thought that went into it you made the right move for you at the time....everything happens for a reason and I am sure the future will work out...my son is going thru almost the same type of ordeal being taken late and weighing his options....Have a great college career and see you in 3.....

rhp05parent,
Thanks for sharing his story. I kept looking under M on the draft tracker and wondering why he wasn't showing up.

RHP,
Great post. You have a pm.
From our experiences with the draft last year, I think that the posts by Fungo and BBscout pretty much sums it up.

Thanks folks. All of us are very happy with the decision and excited to be moving over to the "After High School" side on the board.

One of the most interesting statement was made by Perfect Game when they listed their Final Top Prospects List before the draft:

quote:

.... we do not rank players based on how we feel they will be selected in the draft. Signability, makeup, and other things are not considered. The list represents who we feel are the best players, not necessarily the top draft picks. Often it takes 3 to 5 years for us to track the accuracy of our lists. Highly ranked players who don't get selected early are players we would predict end up being first round selections out of college.

Here's hoping PG gets it right!

To BB Scout;

a great story of Nick Johnson. You can add Goeff Jenkins, Andy Fox, Jim Converse to this list.

Nick played on our American Team to China at age 15 years. The ability was identified by yourself and during our years with the Area Code games, you presented many players from the Oakland area, including Dontelle Willis, Jimmy Rollins, Derrek Lee and Aaron Miles.
All of the players were on our American Team.

Doug, you are a great professional scout and the information on this web site is extremely important to the future players. Your son will be in College World Series next year.

Bob

That was a great post bbscout.

I enjoyed reading it and learned some things, too!

It must be very frustrating when you are a paid professional - for a long time with a great track record - pick a gem - and noone listens to you.

All I know from my vantage point is - the more drafts I watch - the more bewildered I become and the more certain I am that I havent a clue about the whole process.

LOL

RHP05 - Thanks for the heartfelt post and
BBScout - thanks for the very useful insight as to what draft day can possibly feel like from an 'insiders' perspective. Good luck as a Nationals scout. As a Northern VA native, I have to say, that despite my current location, I am enjoying following the Nationals!

Great posts by bbscout and RHP05Parent.

Best of luck at Cal Poly RHP05. You're both in for a lot of fun and hard work. All the best!

any thoughts on the marlins selection of LBSU Sean Boatright and OSU Andy Jenkins...thanks