Shepster may have got it wrong, the point was that these guys were a step or two away from the majors, after stellar college careers. Just noting along the lines of this thread that even the best college pitchers are a level or two away from the majors.

SHEPSTER

For a supposed experienced scout it is surprising to see your posts--they are bringing the Pelfrey kid along slowly---they do not need him yet--- I am beginning to wonder what your opinion means--we can all read the press clippings

I am with deldad-- the jump from the college level to the bigs is huge---and again I ask this: are we rushing these kids

About 29 other MLB teams want him though He's ready now for #3,#4 or #5 for "many" rotations. Only one problem TR, he's protected on the 40 man roster as is Phil Humber. These guys "NYMs Brass" aren't gonna let another team have these pitchers and beat them out of a pennant!

TR, you're just looking at it from a Shea-ster point of view

You are aware that Mike Pelfrey was named as #5 starter by Randolph last year and has a 2-1 win/loss
in the show already.

He is also a seasoned Wichita State starter with "much" success in college before being drafted in the 1st round and fast-tracking to show last year. As is Phil Humber, 1st rounder out of another great program, Rice University. peace shep

In the next 24 hours Pelfry is coming up and Lastings is going down---this way Lastings get needed at bats rather than sit and Pelfry will get an outing or two and then probably return


As for Humber lets see how his arm come along

Shep you might want to talk with Andy who argued with me about Pedroia becoming the Red Sox next second sacker-- he said it would never happen--I may be a Mets fan but I am a bigger BASEBALL FAN and understand the game perhaps better than most

Thank you TRHit and yes I do also think you are "very intelligent and an excellent baseball person who helps many, many kids."

As far as the rushing of kids up to the show, I think you may also have a very good point there as well but you do have to figure in college experience if the player so chooses that risky route with only 2 percent of HS players drafted ever receiving anything remotely close to that amount after three years in college. Not sure about the JUCO drafts in money differential after HS offers but do know for a fact it is much lower!

Peace TR HIT, Shep Cares

SHEPSTER

Where did you opening quote come from---I wasn't talking about anything other perhaps knowing a bit more about the game of baseball than you want to give me credit for---nowhere did I talk about what our program does---I was talking about my own knowledge and understanding of the game--nothing more and nothing less

quote:

by Shepster - but you do have to figure in college experience if the player so chooses that risky route with only 2 percent of HS players drafted ever receiving anything remotely close to that amount after three years in college. Not sure about the JUCO drafts in money differential after HS offers but do know for a fact it is much lower!

Shep,
That is twice now that you posted that 2% statistic. I am totally confused and think this would make for a good discussion.

Here's my problem...

+ means they received more than previously. – means they received less.
2006 draft 1st rd and supplemental 1st rd.
+ Luke Hochevar
+ Greg Reynolds
+ Evan Longoria
+ Brad Lincoln
+ Brandon Morrow
+ Andrew Miller
+ Drew Stubbs
+ Tim Lincecum
+ Max Scherzer
+ Tyler Colvin
+ Matt Antonelli
+ Brett Sinkbeil
+ Ian Kennedy
+ Avery Morris
+ Daniel Bard
+ Kyle McColloch
+ Adam Ottovino
+ Pedro Beato
+ Emanuel Burris
+ Brooks Brown
+ Chris Couglan
+ David Huff
+ Kris Johnson
+ Joba Chamberlain
+ Chris Perez
- No One!

All others were HS kids in the top 44 picks (1st rd and Comp 1st rd) and I believe they all signed.

So out of the top 25 college kids who were drafted last year all 25 increased their value (greatly) over any previous offer.

Someone can continue this if they care to spend a lot of time, but here’s the point. There are about 800 picks (just guessing because don’t have time to research it) each year out of colleges. \

If 2% were receiving less money than their previous offer that would account for 2% of 800 = 16 players. If half of those college players actually sign it would be 2% of 400 = 8 players.

I just listed 25 players above and that accounted for 25 out of 25 or 100% who received more out of college.

Shep, would you please explain where that 2% figure is coming from. I saw where you used it before and must admit, I’m totally confused by that 2% figure! There are a lot of people who visit here that are searching for helpful information. If we are going to throw numbers around they should be accurate and meaningful.

I do understand that numbers can be different depending on one’s point of view or point of emphasis. This could lead to some interesting discussion and research that could become valuable knowledge to many here.

quote:

I’m totally confused by that 2% figure

Shep can be confusing sometimes

from his statements above & in the past it seems he's advising his clients & potential clients via message board that college baseball is a "risky" route & a loosing deal money wise

How could anyone possibly know what every player who did not sign turned down as a last offer? Pure made up agent gibberish.

The early draft picks who don't sign probably are gambling, but most early picks sign (or heads tend to roll in scouting departments)

There are three fairly recent first round picks I can think of who did not sign and went to college.

They all three signed for more money out of college than their first offer. Anyway, as the first offer was reported.

Jeremy Sowers 1st rd HS, 1st rd College
John Mayberry Jr 1st rd HS, 1st rd College
Adam Loewen 1st rd HS, signed for more money after one year JC.

One thing to keep in mind, is lots of players get drafted out of HS (who knows the actual offer, if any?) and then never get drafted again. These players would affect the percentages, but for the most part we wouldn't be talking about a lot of money offered the first time. However, I guess if they turned down $1,000 and then didn't get drafted out of college... They would be someone who didn't receive as big an offer out of college. Then again, these are probably the kids who made the exact right choice the first time!

I don't think we should hang Shep here... There could be a good explanation involving those statistics. I for one, would welcome as much info as possible. I think Shep would too. Heck, it was brought up, let's figure it out.

Shep has a tendency to "rave" about players that perhaps he has not even seen

He also throws out numbers on the internet without substantiating them---yes he can be confusing but I have to wonder at times

Do you "hype" a player you have not seen at least a few times? I cannot speak for others but I know I won't.

There are times I get called on the carpet here for talking about kids who play for us---well I know them real well and talk with authority about them--I cannot do that with others

Personally I would be leery of taking a player for our team on the recommendation from someone who has not seen the player in action a few times.

I'll gladly apologize if I am incorrect, but I get a little antsy when statistics are substituted for purely wishful and baseless speculation to further an agenda to manipulate starry-eyed teenagers for profit.

Dad04,

You are not alone!

But you have more patience.....

PG has more patience than I do---that is for sure

Actually, PG is not that patient.

Anyone ever heard of a prospect named Sanjaya Malakar?

PG just will not cut that kid any slack

Hey it's Friday the 13th and just couldn't resist that one

not trying to hang ol Shep, just trying to learn something by observing and asking questions

often he brings valuable insite to a topic


tho sometimes he shows up on a horse - under a big ol tree ... with a rope

CD dog dude dog man, I gotta go with my main man PG on this one. Naawww Maaannnn, it just didn't do it for me either. I'm not feelin' the Sanjaya cat one bit man. Off you go!

Does that fit under a baseball cap ?

quote:

does that fit under a baseball cap?

they could prolly make it fit