What would be the average increase from your Freshman year to your Sophomore Year.. I have had steady increase since I was 9.. I am afraid your gains will be less and less as you get older.

I don't think there's any such thing as a typical gain. Everyone grows, or doesn't grow, at their own rate. Some stay healthy, some get hurt. Some improve their mechanics, some develop bad habits. Some do proper conditioning and work at it hard, others do zip or not enough.

Theoretically you probably have some genetic limit and whatever it is, when you reach your maximum you'll quit gaining. If you could gain MPH forever, MLB guys would be throwing 150 by now! But when you'll reach that maximum depends on when you stop growing, at what point you perfect your mechanics, at what point you peak physically, etc. Some kids stop growing at age 15. David Robinson, the former NBA player, grew 7" after high school. You just never know!

All you can do is work hard and see what comes in your individual case. At some point you'll likely top out, but that could be this year, or 7 years from now, who knows?

My own son gained 4 mph over the comparable period, but "your mileage (per hour) may vary", to coin a phrase.

It depends a lot on the player's age and physical maturity and where they are starting from as far as velocity.

The data I put together showed that the typical increase for a kid going from 14yo to 15yo or 15yo to 16yo who grows 2 inches over that time period is about 5mph. If they don't grow then it will usually be a bit under 4 mph.

But results may vary... See the PG comments about Rusty Shellhorn who picked up about 7 or 8 mph between being a rising junior and being a rising senior, going from 79 to 86 or 87 mph. I think a lot of that gain came from good old fashioned hard work.

Like Midlo dad says once you stop growing and gaining physical maturity then the "easy" gains are pretty much done for and it takes work to get those few extra mph if they are there. However, don't take finishing with height gains as being the end, as often times the shoulders continue to broaden and the arms get a tiny bit longer even after the growth plates in the legs and elbows have closed.

I am 5' 11 and 175. I still feel like I got a inch or 2 left in me. March 6th I will be 16, I just want to top out at 87 as a sophomore. Here is my top speed since I was 9.

9-53
10-58
11-63
12-68
13-72
14-78
15-84

All were recorded using a jugs gun

Even assuming those are peak numbers and not your "cruising" speeds, those are strong numbers.

Since you made a substantial gain last year, I would think more would still be coming your way this year.

Why don't you check back in June and tell us how it turned out?

Man I have seen so many different scenarios in the years I have been coaching. Ive seen guys come in to hs throwing 78 and leave throwing 94. Ive seen guys come in throwing 82 and leave throwing 84. From my experience with the guys that work hard the biggest jump has come between the soph year and the jr year. But a steady increase has been the norm for the guys that work at it consistently during their career. And yes alot has to do with guys that come in closer to being physically mature and the ones that are not and then grow much more while they are in hs. Here are some numbers for some guys in our program the last few years.

Matt Harrison Freshman Year (14) 6'3 175 lhp 78
Soph Year 6'3 190 85
Jr Year 6'4 200 89
Sr Year 6'4 210 94
Drafted last pick 3rd round Atlanta now with the Rangers just made the 40 man roster.

Chris Luck Freshman Year (15) 6'3 165 rhp 87
Soph Year 6'3 170 88
Jr Year 6'3 175 88
Sr Year 6'3 175 92
Drafted 20 round Tampa Rays last year. Chris had tendinitis in his elbow his soph year into the jr year so he didnt pitch much. He made a huge jump after he got heathty and really started to work. As a 15 year old Freshman he was 86-87 bumping 90. He was actually bigtime on the radar at this young age. Fell off the radar. Then had a big senior year. He was voted by BA as one of the top 5 hs pitchers taken in the draft last year based on his tremendous performance in his first pro year. Not bad for a 20th rounder. He did get 7th round money though.

Pratt Maynard Freshman Year (15) 5'11 188 83
Soph Year 5'11 195 86
Jr Year 6'0 205 88
Sr Year 6'0 210 89-90
Pratt is a senior this season. He is headed to NC State as a 3b and was told he will get some two way time down the road. He is a great lh stick. Pitching wise he is more of a power type guy in hs , not near as loose as the previous two on the hill. Not near as long or clean. More of a Clemens type of frame.

Kurt Watkins Freshman Year (14) 5'9 140 76
Soph Year 5'9 150 79
Jr Year 6'1 165 84
Sr Year 6'2 175 87

Nasty low 3/4 arm slot. We almost cut him his freshman year. Small weak and couldnt throw a strike. He worked hard and grew alot. He starred at the JUCO level. Had a nice baseball career.

Josh Darroach Freshman Year (15) 5'11 175 80
Soph Year 5'11 185 82
Jr Year 5'11 190 84
Josh is a Jr this year. He came in very physically mature with facial hair and thick build. He has a chance to be pretty good if he continues to work. We will see.

This is a small sampling of some of our guys. Not sure what this tells you maybe something. The guys that work hard get better. The ones that dont , dont really get better. Alot of variables out there. Good luck

My son is your age and if he asked me that question my advice to him would be to put away the gun and work on developing yourself as a complete pitcher.

The fact is once you do all the things you can to develop arm strength, the rest is uncontrollable genetics. So my suggestion is to forget about your current and future mph that that will take care of itself and work hard and have fun.

I think it is impossible to not focus on velocity. What is the result of proper and better mechanics? More velocity. What is the result of a good work out program to strengthen the core and the entire body? More velocity. What is the result of a good long toss program that you are consistent in? More velocity? A pitcher works hard to develop his velocity regardless of where he starts out at. It is a good measuring stick for him. You need to have that feedback that velocity readings will give you. I say focus very much on your velocity. Work your butt off to continue to increase your ability to pitch at the highest velocity you can effectively pitch at. This means work hard on your pitching mechanics and get the proper instruction needed to refine them. Understand your delivery and how to repeat it over and over again. Be able to instantly know when you have done something wrong and then how to correct it. Work on your body. Get as strong in the core and the lower body as you can possibly get. Get on a good training program and if you need assistance get it. And work to throw hard. Work to throw the baseball where you need to be able to throw it. You can not take velocity out of the equation. Its part of it.

Look there will come a day when I dont care how good your mechanics are. If your a senior and you have perfect mechanics but your pitching at 80 enjoy your senior year because its your last. Sorry but thats the cold hard facts. You must learn what it takes to put it all together and create the arm speed needed to throw hard. Good luck.

Nice post coach.

Couldn't agree more!

Coach M.,
I didn't think my comments would go unchallenged but I think they're still valid nevertheless. Essentially, I was trying to make two points with what I said:
1. Velocity is important but assuming you're working out and using proper mechanics, velocity is going to be what its going to be. Nature plus nuture = result. No magic potion exists.
2. Assuming the first point is correct and you're doing your best, focus on things you can control and develop into the best pitcher at whatever velocity you're currently at. Example to consider: 2 pitchers (maybe even among the crowd you listed). 1 pitcher throws hard (90+) early and just blows everyone away as he moves up. Pitcher 2, throws much softer and learns how to pitch in the process and in time get his velocity increase to the level of the first pitcher. Who would you think would be the more developed pitcher when they've both maxed out their velocities?

Personally, I view velocity readings as mere entry level numbers. IMO a pitcher has to be a minimum of 83+ to be an effective high school pitcher, 87+ Div. 1 and 90+ to be considered a professional prospect. But hitting these numbers only gets you a look, an opportunity and the beginning of the process not a guaranteed result by itself. So I'm quite aware of the importance of velocity but believe there's a finite number of things you can do to control it and an infinite number of things you can do to improve as a pitcher.

ps. Coach M. Good luck to your son and interestingly if your son hadn't got the winning hit against us in Jupiter, my son was going the start the next game.

igball,
The question is will pitcher 2 ever max out on his velocity? Pitcher 1 will get his shot and they'll try to teach him how to pitch in the minors. Pitcher 2 may never get that shot. Part of gaining velocity is learning how to throw hard. For some kids it comes naturally, for some kids it takes long toss, or radar feedback, or over/under training.

Why not try to build arm speed at the same time as learning how to pitch? Essentially, one pitches at about 3 or 4 mph below max velocity to get the best command. Why not drive up the max velocity so that you can pitch 3 or 4 mph below that and still have your best possible command. Improving control and velocity are not mutually exclusive.

This is a great thread and most of the comments are spot on. The velocity profiles of actual kids are nice to compare.

Can't really add much other than a couple of comments made by two pitching coaches my son has seen over the years. (he is HS Freshman now)

1. Current coach has told him since to not worry about velocity right now but to focus on his mechanics, and getting good velocity differentiation (and location control) between his pitches. (he also throws harder than most FrM so maybe its easier for him to say this)

2. Another coach has said that pitchers need to have the "intent" to throw hard and must continue to focus on it if they want to improve. He does sessions were he just works with a pitcher "trying to throw hard" so he can see where their mechanics may break down in game situations.

3. Have heard over and over "If you want to improve something measure it".

Great Stuff!

I've never understood why people think that velocity and command have to be separate.

Ideally it would be great if a kid could actually thow at his max effort (velocity), AND be able to locate it.

He doesn't have to do that all the time, but it's a great tool to have when you can dial it up all the way, and still have confidence in your command/location.

it really depends on the effort and work you put into it. When i was younger I didnt care to work at baseball and i would just rather screw around, but as i got into highschool i realized that if i wanted to be someone i would have to work at it. So i worked really hard and it showed i jumped from a measly 71 as a freshman to 78 as a soph. and then 89 as a junior and i hope to get even better as i enter into my senior year.

I know that as a freshman I threw mid 70's, sophomore year I was high 70's maxing at 83, and prior to my SLAP tear I was consistently 84-86 maxing at 88.

Part of the reason why I had such a substantial jump from sophomore to junior year was that I really buckled down, got onto a lifting program, and followed it to a T; also was on the program for 4 months.

If you want it bad enough and are willing to work hard enough you can accomplish whatever you put yourself to

Around age 16 is the big year for MPH increase.

Velocity is important...if you are looking for schlorship or Pro draft. That is why scouts bring guns to the games. They are professional scouts and still rely on the gun, they cannot accureatly judge or tell the difference in a fastball or change without them. They use them to chart picthers with and record the data produced by the guns.
Propper mechanics are a plus but not necessary as most programs/coaches will try to mold thier picters to pitch "thier way" they think they can fix anyones delivery with thier great coaching skills.
Don't let others tell you velocity is not important, it IS if you want to be seen. Ways to improve velocity are hard work, mechanics, and using tools available to get better results. Throwing baseballs thar are heavier, using bands etc. will help to increase velocity.

Velocity is important but not so much at college level. I have seen lots of soft tossers in D1 . There is no doubt that hard throwers will get more opportunity than soft tossers but lots of sub 85mph guys in D1 and other colleges.

I know this is crazy but I agree that speed is very important AND not very important. Hang around baseball long enough and you find exceptions to almost any rule.

I'm not sure D-1 is always the acid test, tho. There are some surprisingly bad D-1 teams in the weakest conferences.

Only near-rule I have on speed is that college scholarship pitchers (at any level) ALMOST always can hit 80.

Even on the bad teams there are a few good hitters that could make you pay. I agree that D1 is not always a true test but I saw lots of slow tossing guys at some top schools.